Predicting the future of technology is a risky business, because inevitably, you’ll be wrong in some way or another! There’s so much change and convergence happening rapidly, inside a societal framework that has complex forces at play. I can’t claim to be a futurist, but as someone deeply immersed in the tech sector, I am an interested party—which is why back in 2022, I took a punt. Inspired by a book about the biggest, most influential trends of the day, I published a report outlining the emerging market trends that were expected to play a significant role in the future of technology between now, and 2030. A lot has happened in the two years since! This article is an update on the key changes to the emerging trends and movements in the world of tech, that are expected to shape the future of the sector.

All in the Cloud

In 2022, public cloud services generated approximately NZ$23.9 billion in new revenue, accounting for about 6% of the country’s GDP. Projections indicate that by 2026, public cloud adoption will add an additional NZ$21 billion to the economy and create around 134,000 new jobs.

While of course much legacy tech remains, cloud-first is the modern attitude held by many organisations here in Aotearoa. While this continues the patterns we saw two years ago, there is a caveat: the pace of adoption, and volume of transformational, migration-to-cloud projects has decreased – likely due in part to projects being completed over the last 2 years, and current economic conditions.

In the lead-up to the election last year, we saw typical activity slowdown and a ‘watch and wait’ mentality towards all manner of projects. When the new Coalition government took the reins, there was a prompt ‘foot on the brakes’ for existing activity and no launching of new programmes, on the back of the government’s cost-cutting focus. Subsequently, we are now seeing reduced numbers of migration-to-Cloud projects, when compared with the two years prior. However, 2025 is on the horizon. Year two of this Government’s term is expected to bring more ‘bedding in’; lapsed projects are expected to be dusted off, and put back into action.

In terms of Cloud service providers, it’s major international companies that dominate our market, namely Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services. It’s worth noting that Azure and AWS have much larger market shares than GCP, which exists in much smaller pockets.

AWS in particular are expected to establish a local zones region in NZ soon, complete with Auckland-located data centres. When it eventually happens, this should enhance data sovereignty, reduce latency for local businesses, and further accelerate cloud adoption across sectors.

DevOps Methodology

The DevOps methodology has become integral to software development in New Zealand. This entails combining cultural principles, practices and tools that increase the capability of an organisation to deliver software services and apps better, and faster.

While NZ-specific data on this is limited, international stats show that 83% of developers are involved in DevOps-related activities, indicating widespread adoption CI/CD practices. Automation tools such as Terraform and Ansible are widely used to streamline infrastructure management.

The local adoption of the DevOps philosophy is likely to continue expanding throughout 2025 and beyond, as businesses increasingly seek agility, scalability, and operational efficiency, particularly in industries like fintech and health tech, as well as government sectors. Organisations may invest more heavily in automation tools and skilled DevOps professionals to streamline development cycles, enhance security, and reduce costs. Additionally, as remote work persists, DevOps will play a pivotal role in fostering seamless collaboration and ensuring reliable software delivery in distributed teams.

The demand for DevOps engineers with cloud expertise remains high, driven by the ongoing migration to cloud environments and the need for agile, scalable solutions. Into the new year and well beyond, we expect this demand to continue.

We’re all Agile

Echoing global economic patterns, tech environments are becoming more complex and dynamic, and so too are the transformational technology projects that keep organisations moving forward. As an arguably necessary response to this environment, the Agile approach to project management and software development offers transparency, iterative capabilities and flexibility. Instead of following a rigid, linear process, work is broken into smaller, manageable chunks. We reported two years ago that Agile was on the rise, and today, agile methodologies are prevalent in the New Zealand market, and have become almost standard, as an approach in the tech sector. That said, of note is that while many organisations may say they are agile, these frameworks are often not implemented ‘by the book’, with instead, components picked and chosen for use, as is most helpful. Scrum, Kanban and SAFe are the methodologies most commonly deployed. We still see the classic, sequential Waterfall delivery but it’s not unusual for large enterprises to be simultaneously running both a Waterfall style and Agile components, or some kind of merged version – the ‘Wagile’ approach.

The integration of Agile with Design Thinking has also gained traction, fostering innovation and user-centric product development. This hybrid approach enables teams to better understand user needs and rapidly iterate on solutions, enhancing customer satisfaction.

Given ongoing requirements for adaptability, team collaboration, and a strong need to deliver value quickly, our prediction is that Agile will stick around. There’s growth in the formalised project management learning offered by Tertiary institutes, and many organisations ask for these skill sets, so we don’t expect it to disappear anytime soon—though new versions and preferred approaches may well emerge.

The Big Topic: Security

Cybersecurity has become a paramount concern for New Zealand businesses. In 2023, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) recorded 316 cybersecurity incidents, with financially motivated attacks surpassing state-sponsored activities for the first time. These continued, evolving and ongoing breaches underscore the importance of robust cybersecurity measures across all sectors to protect sensitive information and maintain public trust.

Cybersecurity is the one area where—sensibly—there has been continued development and investment. With a September 2024 update to the New Zealand Information Security Manual (NZISM), we have talked to a number of clients and contacts who are now kicking off new security uplifts in order to meet updated, rigorous requirements.

We expect to see more of this across the sector (and beyond): Organisations investing in comprehensive security strategies to safeguard sensitive information and comply with evolving regulations. Despite efforts made so far, only 20% of organisations believe they have sufficient budget for security, and just 43% have implemented immutable or offline backup strategies. This indicates a need for increased investment and strategic planning in cybersecurity to mitigate risks effectively.

Cybersecurity will be big on the agenda for next year too, and into the future, with 88 percent of Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) CIOs and technology executives revealing that cybersecurity remains the top technology investment in 2025, according to Gartner’s annual global survey of CIOs and technology executives.

Quantum Computing Impacts

Quantum computing uses the strange rules of quantum physics to process information in a way traditional computers can’t. Instead of regular bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers use qubits, which can be 0, 1, or both at once, enabling them to solve complex problems much faster. There have been significant developments in quantum computing throughout this year, and 2025 is poised for more. For example, IBM is on track to build a 4,000-qubit quantum processor next year, a big leap from current capabilities, potentially enabling more complex computations. The myriad impacts of quantum computing for the tech industry—and the world more broadly, in a multitude of ways, is hard to overstate.

With this advancement, comes issues. Data security is the critical concern, because quantum computers could undermine the encryption methods that currently protect sensitive data. Today’s security protocols, like RSA and ECC encryption, rely on the fact that classical computers take an impractically long time to crack the large prime number-based keys used in encryption. Quantum computers could solve these problems exponentially faster, making current encryption vulnerable.

It’s fascinating, if slightly worrying stuff, and is one of the reasons that cybersecurity remains at the forefront of leaders’ minds. Security is an area we cannot drop the ball; frameworks and protocols need to be as ‘quantum safe’ as is possible. This will be an area of rapid growth and development over the next 18 months.

Remote Working is Still Here

In New Zealand, remote work has become a significant aspect of the employment landscape, with the latest stats showing that nearly 20% of employed adults work primarily from home.

During 2024 there’s been a clear push towards a return to working in the office, as exemplified by the Minister of Finance directing leaders in the public service to tighten remote work practices. Throughout the year, we have seen clients in the government space developing refreshed role requirements that include mandates on the number of days in the office, typically four days, or sometimes three. In the private sector, there are similar patterns, as organisations formalise what may have been previously a less controlled approach. That said, we also continue to see heavy tech organisations offering full flexibility.

It’s an evolving conversation. Remote working and team collaboration tools are already embedded, and continuing to have incremental improvements and updates. Many roles advertised these days may mention an “office-first” philosophy, but our thoughts are that hybrid arrangements will continue to be the preferred option throughout 2025, albeit at the discretion of the savvy employers. Remote work will be a feature of working life, for the near future at least.

AI and Digital Assistants

When researching updates to the 2022 Future of Tech report, one area stood out as moving faster than anticipated. Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools have come a long way, in a short time. By early 2024, over two-thirds of organisations in the Asia-Pacific region reported using AI in at least one business function, marking a substantial rise from previous years. What has fortunately not come to pass are some of the more hyperbolic predictions ranging from massive human job losses to AI becoming sentient. It’s likely that AI at work in our society, feels a little more mundane than originally imagined!

Many Kiwi organisations now have AI embedded in their business operations, from chatbots delivering customer service, to predictive analytics in manufacturing or precision agriculture to optimise crop yields. The tech sector is the same, with workers enthusiastically using AI tools for everything from generating code, bug identification to software testing. Interestingly, in May of this year, Microsoft reported a ‘bottom-up AI adoption revolution’ sweeping workplaces, with 75% of employees using AI at work, and not waiting for employers to provide these, but instead bringing their own—BYO-AI.

With new AI tools being launched daily, widespread use will increase, freeing up time to spend on higher order tasks. Our recommendation for next year and beyond: New Zealand organisations should make a conscious decision—will AI be used in our company, or not? The no-man’s land of not taking a position is where issues could arise, and without a clear organisational stance and cascading guidelines, the risk to business is high.

The Future is Here

Since 2022, New Zealand’s technology landscape has evolved significantly. In a mere two years, Cloud computing has become the strategic norm, DevOps and Agile practices are deeply ingrained, and Cybersecurity has risen to become a critical focus. Many of us continue to work remotely. Artificial Intelligence tools are part of the everyday experience for Kiwis in the tech sector, and many other industries. The pace of skillset development needed to resource properly in these areas continues to be a challenge. As the market evolves at speed, staying informed, and adaptable is essential. The team at Absolute IT continue to marvel at the pace of change in our sector, and will keep reading, learning and sharing on what we think is yet to come.